Groome & Co. LLC Realtors® · Community Market Education
The Memphis Housing Market: An Eighteen-Year Perspective
Every December MAAR report from 2009 through 2025, plus June 2026 — a plain-English history of sales, prices, inventory, foreclosures, and interest rates, so you can judge today's market against the full record, not just the headlines.
Freely shared with our community • Data: MAAR Home Sales Reports (MAARdata) · Rates: Freddie Mac
The Whole Story in One Table
Memphis Metro, Year by Year
| Year | Home Sales | Median | Average | Dec. Listings | Mos. Supply | Foreclosures | Avg 30-yr Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 17,328 | $99,000 | $134,974 | 10,484 | 7.3 | 6,438 | 6.03% |
| 2009 | 15,186 | $96,500 | $127,803 | 8,771 | 6.9 | 5,415 | 5.04% |
| 2010 | 13,711 | $91,000 | $128,813 | 8,379 | 7.3 | 4,590 | 4.69% |
| 2011 | 12,790 | $85,900 | $125,448 | 7,194 | 6.7 | 4,113 | 4.45% |
| 2012 | 15,071 | $89,000 | $128,774 | 6,481 | 5.2 | 4,575 | 3.66% |
| 2013 | 16,159 | $106,400 | $143,395 | 6,190 | 4.6 | 3,962 | 3.98% |
| 2014 | 15,602 | $120,000 | $152,839 | 6,131 | 4.7 | 3,124 | 4.17% |
| 2015 | 16,347 | $125,000 | $158,945 | 5,793 | 4.3 | 3,175 | 3.85% |
| 2016 | 18,083 | $132,350 | $164,498 | 4,715 | 3.1 | 2,205 | 3.65% |
| 2017 | 19,274 | $139,000 | $173,100 | 4,190 | 2.6 | 1,828 | 3.99% |
| 2018 | 19,734 | $148,000 | $182,465 | 4,050 | 2.5 | 1,413 | 4.54% |
| 2019 | 19,589 | $155,000 | $190,488 | 3,682 | 2.3 | 1,082 | 3.94% |
| 2020 | 19,660 | $177,000 | $214,516 | 2,403 | 1.5 | 477 | 3.10% |
| 2021 | 22,263 | $205,000 | $240,584 | 2,165 | 1.2 | 290 | 2.96% |
| 2022 | 19,872 | $220,000 | $262,518 | 2,934 | 1.8 | 431 | 5.34% |
| 2023 | 15,637 | $215,000 | $267,502 | 3,218 | 2.5 | 383 | 6.81% |
| 2024 | 15,669 | $210,000 | $268,042 | 3,469 | 2.7 | 420 | 6.72% |
| 2025 | 15,047 | $224,250 | $274,658 | 4,078 | 3.3 | 467 | ≈6.6% |
| 2026 (Jan–Jun) | 6,942 | $230,000 | $281,060 | 5,067* | 3.4 | 239 | ≈6.5% |
Figures as reported in each year's own December MAAR report (MAARdata revises historical numbers slightly over time). Months of supply = December listings ÷ average monthly sales. *June 2026 listings — a 24-month high. 2025–26 rates approximate; Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.49% the week of July 9, 2026.
Chart I
Sales Volume Follows Interest Rates
Watch the light-blue rate line against the navy sales bars. When money got cheaper (2012–2016, 2020–2021), transactions climbed. When rates doubled in 2022–23, sales fell 30% from peak in two years — the volume response to rates is fast and brutal. But notice 2024–25: sales flattened around 15,000–15,700 even with rates near 7%. That's the market finding its footing at a new normal — roughly the same annual pace as 2012–2014.
Chart II
Prices Are a Different Animal
Here's the chart that should reframe how we all think about "crashes." In eighteen years, the metro median has fallen meaningfully exactly once: 2008–2011, peak-to-trough −13% ($99,000 → $85,900) — and that took a global financial crisis, mass unemployment, and thousands of forced sales. The 2022–23 rate shock, the fastest rate increase in 40 years? The median dipped 2.3%, twice, and resumed climbing. From the 2011 trough to today, the Memphis median is up 168%.
Charts III & IV
The Supply Collapse — and Why Prices Held
December active listings
Annual foreclosure actions
These two charts explain everything. Inventory fell 84% from the 2008 peak (12,113 listings in January 2008) to the 2021 floor. Foreclosures fell 93% — from 6,438 a year to a few hundred. In 2009, bank sales were 38.6% of every transaction in the metro (5,866 of 15,186). In recent years they've run 0.5–1.6%. When rates spiked in 2022 there was no wave of forced sellers to flood the market — so prices never broke. Today's 5,067 listings sound high after 2021, but we're still 52% below the 2008 supply peak.
The Eras
Six Chapters of Local History
The Foreclosure Era 2008–2011
The financial crisis hits. Sales slide four straight years to 12,790 — the lowest in this dataset. Inventory tops 10,000; over a third of sales are bank-owned; the median grinds down 13% to $85,900. Rates fall from 6% to 4.5% and it doesn't matter — cheap money can't fix forced selling and fear. The takeaway: distress, not rates, is what breaks prices.
The Investor Recovery 2012–2015
Sub-4% rates plus the cheapest houses in a generation bring investors — including institutional buyers who make Memphis a national single-family-rental target. Sales jump 18% in 2012 alone. The median leaps 20% in 2013 as the distressed share shrinks. The takeaway: markets recover from the bottom up — often while headlines are still grim.
The Long Expansion 2016–2019
Steady jobs, ~4% rates, and healthy demand push sales near 20,000 a year — the strongest sustained run in the dataset. Prices compound 5–7% annually. Inventory quietly erodes from 4,715 to 3,682 because building never caught up after 2008. The takeaway: the "boring" years did more for household wealth-building than the dramatic ones.
The Pandemic Boom 2020–2021
Rates collapse to 2.96%. Sales hit an 18-year record — 22,263 in 2021 — while inventory hits an all-time floor of 2,165. That's 1.2 months of supply: functionally nothing for sale. The median jumps 28% in two years. The takeaway: 2021 was a once-in-a-generation anomaly built on emergency monetary policy — not a fair baseline for anyone's expectations.
Rate Shock & Lock-In 2022–2025
Rates double in 18 months, the fastest climb since 1981. Volume drops 30% from peak as buyers lose purchasing power and sellers with 3% mortgages refuse to move — the "lock-in effect." But the median barely flinches (−2.3% in '23 and '24, then +6.8% in '25) because supply stays historically scarce and distress stays near record lows. The takeaway: affordability crises freeze markets; they don't crash them, absent forced sellers.
The New Normalization 2026 →
Inventory has rebuilt to 5,067 — a 24-month high, though barely half of 2008 levels. Months of supply: 3.4, up from 1.2 at the trough but well under the 6–7 of the crash years. Rates near 6.5%. Sales stabilizing, prices up 4.5% so far this year. This looks most like 2014–2015: a functioning, negotiable, fundamentals-driven market. If your reference point is 2020–21, today feels slow. If your reference point is 2008–11, today looks remarkably healthy.
The Distillation
Three Patterns Worth Remembering
1. Rates drive volumeEvery major swing in transaction count in 18 years maps to the cost of money. Rates fall → sales rise within 12–18 months; rates spike → volume drops fast. To anticipate how busy the market will be, watch where mortgage rates are heading. |
2. Supply drives pricePrices rose through 7% rates because there was nothing to buy, and fell in 2009 because there was everything to buy. To anticipate what homes are worth, watch months of supply — under roughly 5, sellers hold pricing power; the trend matters more than the level. |
3. Distress drives crashesThe only real price decline required 6,000+ foreclosures a year and 38% bank sales. Homeowner equity today is the firewall. If you're worried about a crash, watch foreclosure filings — at roughly 470 a year versus 6,438 in 2008, the fuel simply isn't there. |
Context for Today
Where June 2026 Sits in Eighteen Years of History
|
3.4
Months of Supply Today
2008: 7.3 · 2021: 1.2 · balanced ≈ 5–6
|
52%
Below 2008 Peak Inventory
5,067 now vs 10,484 then
|
−93%
Foreclosures vs 2008
~470/yr now vs 6,438 then
|
+168%
Median Since 2011 Trough
$85,900 → $230,000
|
The honest translation: today's market is not 2008 (no distress, half the inventory), and it's not 2021 (three times the selection, real negotiating room). It's closest to 2014–15 — a normal market that rewards preparation and punishes mispricing. If you're waiting for either a crash or 3% rates, this dataset suggests you're waiting for a foreclosure wave that doesn't exist — or an emergency the Federal Reserve has no intention of repeating.
The Forecast Framework
Four Dials to Watch — and What They'd Mean
Mortgage rates (now ≈6.5%)History says a sustained move toward 5.5% unlocks meaningful volume — both locked-in sellers and sidelined buyers. Expect listings and sales to rise together, which can actually soften price growth even as activity booms. A move toward 7.5%+ freezes volume further but, absent distress, doesn't break prices. |
Months of supply (now 3.4, rising)The dial that matters most for pricing. 3–4 months: sellers still lead, precision required. Past ~5: expect flat-to-soft prices and longer days on market — sellers do best listing before the neighborhood does. Back under 3: multiple-offer conditions return. |
Foreclosure filings (now ~40/month)The crash early-warning system. Metro filings would need to grow several-fold for a distress cycle — watch for sustained moves past 100+/month paired with rising unemployment. Nothing in the current data suggests it; equity cushions are historic. |
New construction mixBuilders are the swing supplier. Their pivot to attainable product — new-home medians falling while closings rise in Bartlett, Millington, and Fayette County — adds inventory exactly where first-time demand lives: a stabilizer for volume and a ceiling on entry-level price spikes. |
Nothing here is a prediction — it's a framework. No one can tell you where the market will be next year; what history can tell you is which indicator answers which question. Any good agent — ours or otherwise — can pull the current reading for your neighborhood.
GROOME & CO. LLC REALTORS®
Sources: Memphis Area Association of REALTORS® December Home Sales Reports 2009–2025 and June 2026 report (MAARdata — deed recordings, Shelby, Fayette & Tipton Counties, TN; 2008 figures from prior-year comparisons in the 2009 report). Interest rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey annual averages; 2025–2026 approximate. Figures as reported at the time; MAAR revises historical data. General market education, not individualized advice.
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